COVID-19 and pathways to low-carbon air transport until 2050

The COVID-19 pandemic has led to an unprecedented decline in global air transport and associated reduction in CO2 emissions. The International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) reacted by weakening its own CO2-offsetting rules. Here we investigate whether the pandemic can be an opportunity to bring the sector on a reliable low-carbon trajectory, with a starting point in the observed reduction in air transport demand. We model a COVID-19 recovery based on a feed-in quota for non-biogenic synthetic fuels that will decarbonize fuels by 2050, as well as a carbon price to account for negative externalities and as an incentive to increase fuel efficiency. Results suggest that until 2050, air transport demand will continue to grow, albeit slower than in ICAO's recovery scenarios, exceeding 2018 demand by 3.7-10.3 trillion RPK. Results show that synthetic fuels, produced by 14-20 EJ of photovoltaic energy, would make it possible to completely phase out fossil fuels and to avoid emissions of up to 26.5 Gt CO2 over the period 2022-2050.

A systematic review on shared mobility in China

The last decade witnessed a rapid rise in shared mobility in China. However, there is lack of understanding how the shared mobility market developed, how shared mobility reshapes daily travel patterns, and what shared mobility contributes, if at all, to environmental goals, and in particular climate change mitigation. Here, we systematically review the state of shared mobility in China, scoping 2541 English paper and 12,140 Chinese research papers. We differentiate between ride hailing, car sharing, and bike sharing and analyze the factors shaping shared mobility patterns from the four perspectives of consumers, service providers, the government, and the environment. We also elaborate on governance measures guiding shared mobility and investigate the impact of future shared mobility on a potential low-carbon transportation system transition, highlighting the key role of bike sharing and shared pooled mobility. We show that COVID-19 reduced demand for car hailing, but rendered bike sharing more popular. This work provides a systematic guidance for the future development of shared mobility, and its possibility to contribute to climate change mitigation. © 2021 Taylor & Francis Group, LLC.

Temporary reduction in daily global CO₂ emissions during the COVID-19 forced confinement

Government policies during the COVID-19 pandemic have drastically altered patterns of energy demand around the world. Many international borders were closed and populations were confined to their homes, which reduced transport and changed consumption patterns. Here we compile government policies and activity data to estimate the decrease in CO₂ emissions during forced confinements. Daily global CO₂ emissions decreased by -17% (-11 to -25% for +/-1sigma) by early April 2020 compared with the mean 2019 levels, just under half from changes in surface transport. At their peak, emissions in individual countries decreased by -26% on average. The impact on 2020 annual emissions depends on the duration of the confinement, with a low estimate of -4% (-2 to -7%) if prepandemic conditions return by mid-June, and a high estimate of -7% (-3 to -13%) if some restrictions remain worldwide until the end of 2020. Government actions and economic incentives postcrisis will likely influence the global CO₂ emissions path for decades.